(WPDE) — A conducive pattern for storm after storm will keep rain chances elevated all week long across the Carolinas and Southeast.
It all stems from the jet stream's dive south coupled with a pesky ridge of high pressure that isn't planning on moving anytime soon over the Bahamas. The combination of both features positions a funnel of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and even some Pacific moisture, directly into the Southeast through next weekend.
While no one day looks like a total washout, this is the week you don't want to be caught without your umbrella or rain jacket.
Monday afternoon, a cold front will move through the region bringing a return of the sun for several hours before a stalled frontal boundary brings overcast skies back into the Carolinas after midnight. The daytime heating this afternoon will allow temperatures to return to the low to mid 60s area wide, but the cold front that brings the sun, also brings much colder air for Tuesday.
Expect overcast skies to return Tuesday with very limited rain potential. Highs however will fall back to around 50 degrees, a good 5 to 10 degrees below average for many communities.
By Wednesday, the pesky stalled front will begin to move back onshore. The question remains, how far inland will it move? Right now, highs on Wednesday look to be about 10 degrees warmer at the coast, near 60 degrees, while only 2 or 3 degrees warmer inland, with highs near 53 to 55. A deeper storm system will also be moving northward, so moderate rainfall may spread into the region Wednesday morning and early afternoon before moving out in the evening.
Thursday, the stalled front moves north of the region bringing a return to the above average temperatures area wide. Scattered showers are possible from Thursday through Sunday. Thursday will be extremely warm, near 80 inland with upper 70s at the coast. We return to the mid to upper 60s by Friday and Saturday with 70s returning Sunday.
Sunday will need to be watched closely for the potential of a few thunderstorms, and one or two which may be strong to severe. A significant severe weather outbreak, the first of the 2019 severe season, across the southern plains and lower and mid Mississippi River Valley on Saturday may spread enough instability towards the Carolinas on Sunday to keep those storms going. Keep checking back all week for updates on your Oscar Sunday forecast.